1 00:00:03,280 --> 00:00:06,420 [Music] 2 00:00:35,140 --> 00:00:40,580 welcome to Sputnik orbiting the world 3 00:00:37,700 --> 00:00:43,220 with me George Galloway and me Gayatri 4 00:00:40,580 --> 00:00:46,130 grass and mud wall villagers burn 5 00:00:43,220 --> 00:00:48,920 ill-clad villagers bleed and die in 6 00:00:46,130 --> 00:00:51,309 Southeast Asia it is for someone of my 7 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:55,010 age at least a very familiar sight 8 00:00:51,309 --> 00:00:58,070 Vietnam Cambodia Laos even Korea are 9 00:00:55,010 --> 00:01:00,440 part of the soundtrack of my life those 10 00:00:58,070 --> 00:01:03,080 who don't die are forced to flee on foot 11 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:05,480 through the land mines or afloat on the 12 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:08,030 unforgiving sea with the children's on 13 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:10,640 their backs if they're lucky I call it 14 00:01:08,030 --> 00:01:12,980 Burma you may call it Myanmar I called 15 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:15,800 it Cambodia you may call it Kampuchea 16 00:01:12,980 --> 00:01:18,979 either way we have been faced for years 17 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:22,070 not weeks with an actual as opposed to a 18 00:01:18,979 --> 00:01:24,890 rhetorical genocide an attempt to 19 00:01:22,070 --> 00:01:26,570 destroy completely a specific category 20 00:01:24,890 --> 00:01:29,570 of people namely 21 00:01:26,570 --> 00:01:31,729 the rural India 68% of the Burmese 22 00:01:29,570 --> 00:01:34,130 people are ethnically Burma the name 23 00:01:31,729 --> 00:01:36,590 Myanmar is contested as the name imposed 24 00:01:34,130 --> 00:01:40,790 by the military dictatorship which has 25 00:01:36,590 --> 00:01:42,320 effectively been in power since 1962 87 26 00:01:40,790 --> 00:01:44,600 percent of the population are Buddhists 27 00:01:42,320 --> 00:01:46,880 the military dictatorship has long 28 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:49,039 repressed the minorities in the state in 29 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:51,740 the name of ethno-religious supremacy 30 00:01:49,039 --> 00:01:54,200 the former darling of western liberals 31 00:01:51,740 --> 00:01:56,750 Nobel Peace Prize winner Hong sang-soo 32 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:59,509 Chi is the country's political leader 33 00:01:56,750 --> 00:02:02,869 the lipstick on the pig of the still 34 00:01:59,509 --> 00:02:05,570 ruling military junta so we have a 35 00:02:02,869 --> 00:02:08,720 genocide taking place in a Buddhist 36 00:02:05,570 --> 00:02:11,390 country led by a Nobel laureate you 37 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:13,870 couldn't make it up to help untangle 38 00:02:11,390 --> 00:02:17,090 what's going on now is our first guest 39 00:02:13,870 --> 00:02:19,280 filmmaker Sofia Rahman who has just 40 00:02:17,090 --> 00:02:21,710 returned from the frontline in 41 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:23,870 Bangladesh welcome to the Sputnik 42 00:02:21,710 --> 00:02:25,760 Shaffir where have you just been and 43 00:02:23,870 --> 00:02:28,670 what did you find there thanks George 44 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:30,950 I'm happy to be here I've been all along 45 00:02:28,670 --> 00:02:35,120 the border with Myanmar on the 46 00:02:30,950 --> 00:02:38,330 Bangladesh side you've seen scenes on 47 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:40,430 television but really it's to be there 48 00:02:38,330 --> 00:02:42,560 it's quite an overwhelming 49 00:02:40,430 --> 00:02:45,890 you see thousands and thousands of 50 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:48,020 people mainly women and children sitting 51 00:02:45,890 --> 00:02:51,980 in the torrential rain sitting in the 52 00:02:48,020 --> 00:02:54,560 Sun without very little shelter they're 53 00:02:51,980 --> 00:02:57,050 exhausted they're having to struggle in 54 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:59,360 the mud they can't feed the children 55 00:02:57,050 --> 00:03:01,730 properly the women are unable to lactate 56 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:05,060 they can't breastfeed and sometimes you 57 00:03:01,730 --> 00:03:07,300 see you get panic you get pandemonium I 58 00:03:05,060 --> 00:03:10,730 was there in the Gundam border and 59 00:03:07,300 --> 00:03:13,310 suddenly we heard that two people had 60 00:03:10,730 --> 00:03:14,990 been shot dead two refugees trying to to 61 00:03:13,310 --> 00:03:18,440 draw hinge refugees trying to come into 62 00:03:14,990 --> 00:03:21,410 Paramesh and there was howling and 63 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:24,350 crying all around and I filmed these 64 00:03:21,410 --> 00:03:25,630 refugees trying to retrieve the bodies 65 00:03:24,350 --> 00:03:28,070 from the no-man's land 66 00:03:25,630 --> 00:03:30,770 slipping all over in the mud blood 67 00:03:28,070 --> 00:03:32,150 everywhere it's absolutely terrible no 68 00:03:30,770 --> 00:03:34,700 you see it's mainly women and children 69 00:03:32,150 --> 00:03:38,660 which begs the obvious question what's 70 00:03:34,700 --> 00:03:42,010 happened to the men I think they the 71 00:03:38,660 --> 00:03:45,410 onslaught of the Burmese military he 72 00:03:42,010 --> 00:03:49,070 hasn't spared men women or children from 73 00:03:45,410 --> 00:03:52,549 all the stories that we've heard no one 74 00:03:49,070 --> 00:03:54,170 has been left in certain villages women 75 00:03:52,549 --> 00:03:56,269 have been targeted women have been 76 00:03:54,170 --> 00:03:58,670 targeted for rape women up in target 77 00:03:56,269 --> 00:04:02,360 they've been corralled into huts and 78 00:03:58,670 --> 00:04:04,700 torched men have often fled to the 79 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:09,470 villages to the hills just before the 80 00:04:04,700 --> 00:04:12,080 attacks become known but the presence of 81 00:04:09,470 --> 00:04:13,700 some overwhelming numbers of women as 82 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:18,080 opposed to men does beg the question 83 00:04:13,700 --> 00:04:18,590 where are they this didn't start weeks 84 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,500 ago 85 00:04:18,590 --> 00:04:24,110 although the TV cameras showed up weeks 86 00:04:21,500 --> 00:04:26,540 ago started years ago it's important I 87 00:04:24,110 --> 00:04:30,050 think for viewers to know that this is 88 00:04:26,540 --> 00:04:33,260 not some response to a specific event or 89 00:04:30,050 --> 00:04:36,290 some act of resistance by the Rohingya 90 00:04:33,260 --> 00:04:39,950 people this is a process over years of 91 00:04:36,290 --> 00:04:43,400 attrition to ethnically cleanse Burma of 92 00:04:39,950 --> 00:04:49,030 its Rohingya population isn't it yes I 93 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:52,789 think they the bogeyman of the jihadi 94 00:04:49,030 --> 00:04:53,540 Bay Islamic extremists they would like 95 00:04:52,789 --> 00:04:56,780 to 96 00:04:53,540 --> 00:05:02,180 say that revenge er is a very convenient 97 00:04:56,780 --> 00:05:04,190 handle for the Burmese military but as 98 00:05:02,180 --> 00:05:07,940 you have said the process has been 99 00:05:04,190 --> 00:05:11,920 extended the violence really kicked off 100 00:05:07,940 --> 00:05:14,870 in 1978 when you saw the first large 101 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:17,570 population movements from Burma into 102 00:05:14,870 --> 00:05:20,210 anti-viral ash I've been filming this 103 00:05:17,570 --> 00:05:23,900 year and there have been numerous 104 00:05:20,210 --> 00:05:26,270 instances of villages being torched or 105 00:05:23,900 --> 00:05:29,630 people being raped poor people people 106 00:05:26,270 --> 00:05:32,570 being killed these episodes provide a 107 00:05:29,630 --> 00:05:35,360 very welcome and convenient handle for 108 00:05:32,570 --> 00:05:38,080 the military to go in and if you like 109 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:42,590 expedite their tasks is it the case that 110 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:45,710 that vigilante militants make the first 111 00:05:42,590 --> 00:05:47,660 attacks and then the army moves in not 112 00:05:45,710 --> 00:05:50,210 necessarily we've heard of villages 113 00:05:47,660 --> 00:05:55,730 where the army have surrounded the 114 00:05:50,210 --> 00:05:59,420 villages and Rakhine mobs sometimes even 115 00:05:55,730 --> 00:06:05,780 monks are part and parcel of the process 116 00:05:59,420 --> 00:06:08,090 of killing people monks yes I I think 117 00:06:05,780 --> 00:06:10,160 there's even documented evidence from 118 00:06:08,090 --> 00:06:12,230 2012 where what these people are 119 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:14,420 involved let me give you an example of 120 00:06:12,230 --> 00:06:17,020 one particular village which seems to 121 00:06:14,420 --> 00:06:20,510 exemplify what's happening across this 122 00:06:17,020 --> 00:06:22,520 Rakhine State and the village was 123 00:06:20,510 --> 00:06:25,070 surrounded by the army they were told 124 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:26,840 that a Hynde chairman told everyone look 125 00:06:25,070 --> 00:06:28,550 we're going to torture buildings we're 126 00:06:26,840 --> 00:06:30,830 going to torture homes but we're not 127 00:06:28,550 --> 00:06:33,050 going to harm you so please assemble 128 00:06:30,830 --> 00:06:35,300 they pointed out a place for them to 129 00:06:33,050 --> 00:06:37,070 assemble but soon that there was a 130 00:06:35,300 --> 00:06:38,660 realization that this is this is not 131 00:06:37,070 --> 00:06:40,460 what was going to happen they torched 132 00:06:38,660 --> 00:06:43,400 the place and then they set upon the 133 00:06:40,460 --> 00:06:47,170 people and what happened there was quite 134 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:50,090 astonishing over a period of three days 135 00:06:47,170 --> 00:06:52,430 virtually every member of that village 136 00:06:50,090 --> 00:06:54,650 was slaughtered was killed somehow men 137 00:06:52,430 --> 00:06:58,520 women and children know this comes as a 138 00:06:54,650 --> 00:07:04,800 great shock to people even perspicacious 139 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:08,000 viewers of sputnik monks Buddhist 140 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:12,060 both of whom have a kind of idealized 141 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:15,389 image in Western countries the Dalai 142 00:07:12,060 --> 00:07:17,940 Lama and and chanting in front of the 143 00:07:15,389 --> 00:07:20,130 Buddha and so on it's quite a shock to 144 00:07:17,940 --> 00:07:22,199 people as a shock to you is a shock to 145 00:07:20,130 --> 00:07:25,560 the victims I think those who follow the 146 00:07:22,199 --> 00:07:27,050 process of those who follow the process 147 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:30,270 what's been happening to the Rohingya 148 00:07:27,050 --> 00:07:32,880 I think it's not entirely a shock and 149 00:07:30,270 --> 00:07:37,260 it's a very crafted thing that's 150 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:39,960 happening here it's often seen in the 151 00:07:37,260 --> 00:07:42,419 press as a as a communal conflict as a 152 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:45,330 religious conflict it's not quite that 153 00:07:42,419 --> 00:07:47,550 it'sit's very useful angles to have for 154 00:07:45,330 --> 00:07:50,460 the military to to put it like that I 155 00:07:47,550 --> 00:07:52,889 think if you see that one of the real 156 00:07:50,460 --> 00:07:55,410 questions is about land grabbing is 157 00:07:52,889 --> 00:07:59,580 about resources in that area it's become 158 00:07:55,410 --> 00:08:02,699 a very interesting area for corporate 159 00:07:59,580 --> 00:08:07,020 argued culture timber geothermal 160 00:08:02,699 --> 00:08:09,900 projects and so on and land wrapping has 161 00:08:07,020 --> 00:08:12,360 also affected the Buddhists put a small 162 00:08:09,900 --> 00:08:16,650 halters so if you think about it it's 163 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:19,380 very useful for for the military to set 164 00:08:16,650 --> 00:08:22,410 one group up against another in order to 165 00:08:19,380 --> 00:08:24,150 hide the economic and their business 166 00:08:22,410 --> 00:08:26,550 interests that they have which is 167 00:08:24,150 --> 00:08:28,979 affecting both population groups of 168 00:08:26,550 --> 00:08:31,349 course one population group is being 169 00:08:28,979 --> 00:08:34,469 targeted as particularly unpalatable 170 00:08:31,349 --> 00:08:37,349 Amiens as in the revenger but it's not 171 00:08:34,469 --> 00:08:40,110 to say that buddhists haven't been 172 00:08:37,349 --> 00:08:42,150 affected also by the military's business 173 00:08:40,110 --> 00:08:46,160 interests in the region but the 174 00:08:42,150 --> 00:08:49,529 ideological base of the regime is 175 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:52,890 Burmese nationalism Buddhist chauvinism 176 00:08:49,529 --> 00:08:55,170 other groups over decades have been 177 00:08:52,890 --> 00:08:57,839 repressed the current people the Hmong 178 00:08:55,170 --> 00:09:00,570 people who are all small minorities in 179 00:08:57,839 --> 00:09:03,540 the state one after the other have are 180 00:09:00,570 --> 00:09:06,750 often something at the same time have 181 00:09:03,540 --> 00:09:12,660 been targeted so the main driver isn't 182 00:09:06,750 --> 00:09:15,300 it is the ethno-religious attempt to 183 00:09:12,660 --> 00:09:18,040 make Burma an entirely burmese an 184 00:09:15,300 --> 00:09:19,630 entirely Buddhist 185 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,519 there's no doubt about it that there's 186 00:09:19,630 --> 00:09:23,140 an ethnic component to this and that 187 00:09:21,519 --> 00:09:26,529 there's a communist component to this 188 00:09:23,140 --> 00:09:29,560 the terms that are used to discriminate 189 00:09:26,529 --> 00:09:32,830 against revenger color and so on they 190 00:09:29,560 --> 00:09:36,459 are ethnic slurs if you like which 191 00:09:32,830 --> 00:09:39,940 target darker skinned people we which 192 00:09:36,459 --> 00:09:43,329 target Muslims without a doubt that's 193 00:09:39,940 --> 00:09:47,290 that's the case but it's undeniable also 194 00:09:43,329 --> 00:09:50,890 that the military have very specific 195 00:09:47,290 --> 00:09:53,800 business interests and hand in hand is a 196 00:09:50,890 --> 00:09:56,829 very important mix can I just go back to 197 00:09:53,800 --> 00:10:00,640 the border where you have been going and 198 00:09:56,829 --> 00:10:02,860 filming for a good year now so mostly 199 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:06,880 women and children I think over quarter 200 00:10:02,860 --> 00:10:09,370 million have now fled into Bangladesh so 201 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:11,769 what what is happening to them well 202 00:10:09,370 --> 00:10:14,140 where they are they is the Bangladeshi 203 00:10:11,769 --> 00:10:16,390 government just giving them there or is 204 00:10:14,140 --> 00:10:18,250 there a certain program around it I 205 00:10:16,390 --> 00:10:22,029 think at first it was the idea of 206 00:10:18,250 --> 00:10:26,020 containment that people would be somehow 207 00:10:22,029 --> 00:10:29,260 push back push back into Burma when 208 00:10:26,020 --> 00:10:31,180 things calm down but that idea soon 209 00:10:29,260 --> 00:10:34,000 evaporated because things weren't coming 210 00:10:31,180 --> 00:10:37,540 down as the villages kept being torched 211 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:40,410 so now they're being slowly released 212 00:10:37,540 --> 00:10:45,820 from those areas and they're coming into 213 00:10:40,410 --> 00:10:50,320 an already very tight situation all the 214 00:10:45,820 --> 00:10:52,750 camps are completely over capacity 215 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:55,029 already so you can imagine the arrival 216 00:10:52,750 --> 00:10:56,860 of 370 now I believe the figure is three 217 00:10:55,029 --> 00:10:58,930 hundred ninety thousand so you can 218 00:10:56,860 --> 00:11:01,329 imagine what the impact of three hundred 219 00:10:58,930 --> 00:11:02,949 ninety thousand people will do you can 220 00:11:01,329 --> 00:11:05,140 think about latrines you can think about 221 00:11:02,949 --> 00:11:08,020 food distribution you can think about 222 00:11:05,140 --> 00:11:11,140 even even to erect a small Hut for 223 00:11:08,020 --> 00:11:13,240 yourself or just a plastic sheet or over 224 00:11:11,140 --> 00:11:15,910 your head is a very difficult task if 225 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:17,709 you're an unaccompanied child or if 226 00:11:15,910 --> 00:11:20,050 you're a mother with lots of children 227 00:11:17,709 --> 00:11:22,029 and you don't have any money to buy the 228 00:11:20,050 --> 00:11:24,250 plastic there's no one providing you 229 00:11:22,029 --> 00:11:26,350 with money or giving you plastic sheets 230 00:11:24,250 --> 00:11:28,329 there's a flourishing market in plastics 231 00:11:26,350 --> 00:11:30,970 which I just cannot believe how this can 232 00:11:28,329 --> 00:11:34,959 be lastly I'm afraid we 233 00:11:30,970 --> 00:11:38,230 of time the British government is still 234 00:11:34,959 --> 00:11:40,959 providing military training to the 235 00:11:38,230 --> 00:11:43,360 Burmese military that is carrying out 236 00:11:40,959 --> 00:11:47,949 these atrocities how does that make you 237 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:49,750 feel I read today that John McCain is 238 00:11:47,949 --> 00:11:51,540 going to introduce an amendment to the 239 00:11:49,750 --> 00:11:55,420 American bill and this is John McCain 240 00:11:51,540 --> 00:11:58,449 someone who is a Republican and someone 241 00:11:55,420 --> 00:12:02,050 you don't really feel that might engage 242 00:11:58,449 --> 00:12:08,139 in progressive policies and yet here we 243 00:12:02,050 --> 00:12:09,899 are in in the UK still going along as if 244 00:12:08,139 --> 00:12:12,699 nothing has happened it's deeply 245 00:12:09,899 --> 00:12:15,610 republic of course I'm really grateful 246 00:12:12,699 --> 00:12:17,949 to you for your firsthand testimony I 247 00:12:15,610 --> 00:12:19,870 wish we had more time to explore it 248 00:12:17,949 --> 00:12:22,959 further maybe on another occasion 249 00:12:19,870 --> 00:12:25,420 shafa'ah Rahman god bless your work and 250 00:12:22,959 --> 00:12:26,079 thanks for coming on the sputnik thank 251 00:12:25,420 --> 00:12:28,720 you 252 00:12:26,079 --> 00:12:30,730 coming up next the elections in Germany 253 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:34,230 where there's no Russian interference 254 00:12:30,730 --> 00:12:34,230 after all don't miss it 255 00:12:37,070 --> 00:12:41,880 welcome back to Sputnik next week's 256 00:12:39,930 --> 00:12:44,220 federal elections in Germany will 257 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:46,440 determine not just the governance of 258 00:12:44,220 --> 00:12:48,180 Europe's most important country but will 259 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:50,550 shape the next stage in the history of 260 00:12:48,180 --> 00:12:53,190 the European Union and the flow of 261 00:12:50,550 --> 00:12:53,820 migrants and refugees into the European 262 00:12:53,190 --> 00:12:55,610 continent 263 00:12:53,820 --> 00:12:58,680 and will also be pivotal in determining 264 00:12:55,610 --> 00:13:01,740 Britain's relations with Europe once we 265 00:12:58,680 --> 00:13:04,470 leave the EU so important then our 266 00:13:01,740 --> 00:13:07,350 resident expert in European affairs is 267 00:13:04,470 --> 00:13:09,930 of course dr. Russel Foster from King's 268 00:13:07,350 --> 00:13:12,959 College London and were very glad to see 269 00:13:09,930 --> 00:13:15,899 he's joined us again now dr. Russell we 270 00:13:12,959 --> 00:13:19,019 we never tired of seeing you in any case 271 00:13:15,899 --> 00:13:22,260 but there's an election it seems every 272 00:13:19,019 --> 00:13:24,570 other month in Europe and a cataclysmic 273 00:13:22,260 --> 00:13:27,839 event can always be counted on in 274 00:13:24,570 --> 00:13:30,630 between so this is a biggie the German 275 00:13:27,839 --> 00:13:32,070 election how's it looking well I would 276 00:13:30,630 --> 00:13:33,959 definitely agree that this is the big 277 00:13:32,070 --> 00:13:35,850 election and this year of elections that 278 00:13:33,959 --> 00:13:37,709 we've been dealing with it hasn't ended 279 00:13:35,850 --> 00:13:39,329 of course we've got four elections 280 00:13:37,709 --> 00:13:41,519 coming up in Europe in the next few 281 00:13:39,329 --> 00:13:43,199 months but all eyes have been on the 282 00:13:41,519 --> 00:13:45,569 German one because as we all know the 283 00:13:43,199 --> 00:13:48,569 European Union is dependent upon German 284 00:13:45,569 --> 00:13:50,339 support now in contrast to the Dutch the 285 00:13:48,569 --> 00:13:52,079 British in the French elections which 286 00:13:50,339 --> 00:13:53,279 were in the media because there were 287 00:13:52,079 --> 00:13:55,319 quite touching goes to where the 288 00:13:53,279 --> 00:13:57,600 populist would get in the German 289 00:13:55,319 --> 00:14:02,040 election has been very quiet and quite 290 00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:03,839 calm it's astonishing you have to dig 291 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:06,060 quite deep now the reason for this is 292 00:14:03,839 --> 00:14:08,790 that Angela Merkel is all but guaranteed 293 00:14:06,060 --> 00:14:12,060 to become Chancellor for a fourth term 294 00:14:08,790 --> 00:14:14,430 in the elections next week the Christian 295 00:14:12,060 --> 00:14:16,920 Democratic Union will win most of the 296 00:14:14,430 --> 00:14:20,339 seats in the Bundestag which will give 297 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:22,079 them a great deal of control but as is 298 00:14:20,339 --> 00:14:22,709 always the case in post-war German 299 00:14:22,079 --> 00:14:24,569 politics 300 00:14:22,709 --> 00:14:27,630 they'll have to form a coalition with 301 00:14:24,569 --> 00:14:29,610 one of the other major parties now this 302 00:14:27,630 --> 00:14:31,230 is significant because in the upcoming 303 00:14:29,610 --> 00:14:33,480 elections we may see the number of 304 00:14:31,230 --> 00:14:35,880 parties in the Bundestag rising from 305 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:38,430 four to six with the election of 306 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:40,560 Representatives for de linka or the 307 00:14:38,430 --> 00:14:43,110 Greens or possibly alternative for 308 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:44,640 Deutschland as the right-wing well we 309 00:14:43,110 --> 00:14:46,949 will call them right-wing but a little 310 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:47,480 bit like from nacional or the PVV in the 311 00:14:46,949 --> 00:14:49,970 Netherland 312 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:51,079 they absorb voters from across the 313 00:14:49,970 --> 00:14:53,660 political spectrum 314 00:14:51,079 --> 00:14:55,820 now Merkel has got essentially two 315 00:14:53,660 --> 00:14:58,880 choices as to who she forms a coalition 316 00:14:55,820 --> 00:15:01,130 with the first one is the SPD under 317 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:03,380 Martin Schulz who experienced quite a 318 00:15:01,130 --> 00:15:05,510 surge in popularity a little while ago 319 00:15:03,380 --> 00:15:09,139 they're already in coalition with the 320 00:15:05,510 --> 00:15:10,839 CDU and their outlook upon Europe will 321 00:15:09,139 --> 00:15:13,370 be very significant in determining 322 00:15:10,839 --> 00:15:15,949 Germany's relations with other members 323 00:15:13,370 --> 00:15:17,570 of the Union after the elections but 324 00:15:15,949 --> 00:15:19,220 another alternative is that she could 325 00:15:17,570 --> 00:15:21,050 form a coalition with the free 326 00:15:19,220 --> 00:15:23,570 Democratic Party the FDP 327 00:15:21,050 --> 00:15:25,790 who she was in office with prior to to 328 00:15:23,570 --> 00:15:28,760 their allure the threshold a date they 329 00:15:25,790 --> 00:15:30,589 were wiped out in 2013 partly because of 330 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:33,829 how they are dealt with financial 331 00:15:30,589 --> 00:15:36,139 regulation in Germany but Merkel's CDU 332 00:15:33,829 --> 00:15:39,410 has been in government with both the SPD 333 00:15:36,139 --> 00:15:41,600 and the FDP at different points but each 334 00:15:39,410 --> 00:15:43,579 party has very very different views of 335 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:45,740 how the European Union should be 336 00:15:43,579 --> 00:15:46,790 structured and what reforms need to take 337 00:15:45,740 --> 00:15:48,889 place in Europe 338 00:15:46,790 --> 00:15:50,690 so although Merkel is going to win the 339 00:15:48,889 --> 00:15:53,000 election and it will be business as 340 00:15:50,690 --> 00:15:54,860 usual in Germany depending on who she 341 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:57,110 forms a coalition with will send Europe 342 00:15:54,860 --> 00:16:00,410 in one of two very different directions 343 00:15:57,110 --> 00:16:03,199 it's perilous for the SPD which is the 344 00:16:00,410 --> 00:16:05,750 Labour Party equivalent to be in a 345 00:16:03,199 --> 00:16:07,519 coalition government with the torus it 346 00:16:05,750 --> 00:16:10,279 would be like Jeremy Corbyn sitting in 347 00:16:07,519 --> 00:16:12,949 trees amazed cabinet in a junior 348 00:16:10,279 --> 00:16:14,720 position it sounds strange to us but 349 00:16:12,949 --> 00:16:16,910 this is quite the norm for Germany that 350 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:19,190 they provide us exactly exactly that 351 00:16:16,910 --> 00:16:22,370 they provide a stable systematic 352 00:16:19,190 --> 00:16:23,569 government now the CDU is not really the 353 00:16:22,370 --> 00:16:25,730 equivalent of the Tories they're 354 00:16:23,569 --> 00:16:28,850 probably close to do right-wing Liberal 355 00:16:25,730 --> 00:16:32,000 Democrats they're much more centrist but 356 00:16:28,850 --> 00:16:33,949 with the SPD we could possibly see a 357 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:36,829 continuation of what we saw in the 358 00:16:33,949 --> 00:16:38,600 Netherlands in France and in the British 359 00:16:36,829 --> 00:16:39,920 local elections before our general 360 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:43,310 election in which the establishment 361 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:45,170 left-wing was annihilated I don't think 362 00:16:43,310 --> 00:16:46,699 that that that the SPD is going to be 363 00:16:45,170 --> 00:16:48,529 wiped out but there may take quite a 364 00:16:46,699 --> 00:16:50,690 tumble but they have taken an 365 00:16:48,529 --> 00:16:53,089 establishment turn I mean shorts if he'd 366 00:16:50,690 --> 00:16:56,329 been smart would have taken a carbon 367 00:16:53,089 --> 00:16:58,279 turn he would have left miracles 368 00:16:56,329 --> 00:16:59,850 coalition he would have struck out on 369 00:16:58,279 --> 00:17:03,089 his own with a ball 370 00:16:59,850 --> 00:17:04,770 real labor platform but has done the 371 00:17:03,089 --> 00:17:07,500 opposite well this is one problem for 372 00:17:04,770 --> 00:17:09,809 the SPD that many of the priorities and 373 00:17:07,500 --> 00:17:12,390 policies are not that indistinguishable 374 00:17:09,809 --> 00:17:14,459 from the CDU this means it's very easy 375 00:17:12,390 --> 00:17:16,110 for them to form a coalition but it also 376 00:17:14,459 --> 00:17:18,600 begs the question of why should somebody 377 00:17:16,110 --> 00:17:21,449 for guess be Dean's have CDU there's 378 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:23,880 also the problem that Schulz is not very 379 00:17:21,449 --> 00:17:25,589 good at managing his own image as a 380 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:28,559 politician he is still seen as the 381 00:17:25,589 --> 00:17:30,299 Archie uric rat the man who promised to 382 00:17:28,559 --> 00:17:32,669 fight corruption and nepotism in the 383 00:17:30,299 --> 00:17:37,530 European Parliament and then essentially 384 00:17:32,669 --> 00:17:40,860 got in through backdoor practices me 385 00:17:37,530 --> 00:17:45,330 then to delink ax which if you like is a 386 00:17:40,860 --> 00:17:48,450 Carbonite party basically standing for 387 00:17:45,330 --> 00:17:51,720 the same things that labor under carbon 388 00:17:48,450 --> 00:17:55,530 does here they have a a charismatic 389 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:58,740 leader how do you think they're likely 390 00:17:55,530 --> 00:18:01,080 to do I think they might get one seat 391 00:17:58,740 --> 00:18:03,179 it's but it's debatable whether they'll 392 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:06,150 even achieve that because although des 393 00:18:03,179 --> 00:18:07,919 linkers policies are quite similar to 394 00:18:06,150 --> 00:18:10,440 those that we see under Corbin's labor 395 00:18:07,919 --> 00:18:12,210 delink Estill has a lot of residual 396 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:14,340 connection with the old communists of 397 00:18:12,210 --> 00:18:16,740 East Germany so they will gain some 398 00:18:14,340 --> 00:18:18,750 support in areas and old overlooked 399 00:18:16,740 --> 00:18:22,080 post-industrial areas of East Germany 400 00:18:18,750 --> 00:18:23,580 but because of the continuation the 401 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,650 legacy of the Communists they're not 402 00:18:23,580 --> 00:18:28,290 likely to do very well and another 403 00:18:25,650 --> 00:18:30,120 problem is that a lot of the people who 404 00:18:28,290 --> 00:18:32,640 might have voted for de linka are 405 00:18:30,120 --> 00:18:36,210 flocking to alternative for Deutschland 406 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:38,490 so if there was well if there was no AFD 407 00:18:36,210 --> 00:18:41,340 de link who would probably get a couple 408 00:18:38,490 --> 00:18:42,990 of seats but the AFD just like the front 409 00:18:41,340 --> 00:18:45,210 arsenal in France or you keep in the 410 00:18:42,990 --> 00:18:47,160 United Kingdom have appealed to and 411 00:18:45,210 --> 00:18:50,910 swept up a large part of the vote from 412 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:54,419 the old industrial working class who 413 00:18:50,910 --> 00:18:56,280 feel ignored and isolated by a distant 414 00:18:54,419 --> 00:18:57,870 metropolitan elite which is not 415 00:18:56,280 --> 00:19:01,679 interested in their concern well this 416 00:18:57,870 --> 00:19:04,710 concept was invented in Germany in one 417 00:19:01,679 --> 00:19:08,750 sense I don't want to go too deeply into 418 00:19:04,710 --> 00:19:13,920 the phenomenon of Strasser ISM but the 419 00:19:08,750 --> 00:19:16,200 Nazi Party itself had a left-wing 420 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:18,500 around Strasse they were butchered all 421 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:21,840 of them in the night of the Long Knives 422 00:19:18,500 --> 00:19:25,020 but their stance was both right wing and 423 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:27,480 left wing exactly the same time this is 424 00:19:25,020 --> 00:19:30,270 the front Nationale and France has 425 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,930 indeed modeled itself on that and from 426 00:19:30,270 --> 00:19:33,570 what you see 427 00:19:30,930 --> 00:19:35,309 so as the AFD tell us well this is one 428 00:19:33,570 --> 00:19:37,080 of the characteristics of populism that 429 00:19:35,309 --> 00:19:40,800 we're seeing in Europe and the United 430 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:43,320 States today of a continuation of early 431 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:46,080 20th century policies which are designed 432 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:48,540 to appeal to people who feel ignored by 433 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:50,309 an establishment class so we can't 434 00:19:48,540 --> 00:19:53,460 categorize them as left or right wing 435 00:19:50,309 --> 00:19:56,040 now the F D is potentially unique in 436 00:19:53,460 --> 00:19:58,920 European populist s' one reason is 437 00:19:56,040 --> 00:20:01,140 Germany's collective memory in Britain 438 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:03,480 in America in France we haven't really 439 00:20:01,140 --> 00:20:06,059 faced up to the atrocities that we 440 00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:08,130 committed in our Imperial eras but in 441 00:20:06,059 --> 00:20:10,490 Germany everyone is very what we're very 442 00:20:08,130 --> 00:20:13,620 aware of the consequences of populism 443 00:20:10,490 --> 00:20:15,390 another problem for the AFD is that they 444 00:20:13,620 --> 00:20:18,210 have shifted their rhetoric quite 445 00:20:15,390 --> 00:20:20,190 significantly when the AFD was founded 446 00:20:18,210 --> 00:20:24,200 it was appealing to people who didn't 447 00:20:20,190 --> 00:20:26,220 like germany it was a few years back 448 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,720 relatively new but like a lot of the 449 00:20:26,220 --> 00:20:29,550 populace that we're seeing but they were 450 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:31,559 founded in order to appeal to people who 451 00:20:29,550 --> 00:20:33,780 didn't like a german money going to 452 00:20:31,559 --> 00:20:35,520 bailout the Greeks and it was 453 00:20:33,780 --> 00:20:38,220 essentially a party formed around 454 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:40,440 opposition to an undemocratic European 455 00:20:38,220 --> 00:20:43,320 Union and a financial structure which 456 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:45,690 they felt was disadvantaging Germans but 457 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:48,690 recently the FDS priorities have shifted 458 00:20:45,690 --> 00:20:51,690 a lot they're no longer financial 459 00:20:48,690 --> 00:20:54,450 sceptics they're now ethnic Euroskeptics 460 00:20:51,690 --> 00:20:56,760 and appealing to an ethnic German as' 461 00:20:54,450 --> 00:20:58,530 which is defined against the million 462 00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:01,260 migrants who came in under Merkel's 463 00:20:58,530 --> 00:21:03,840 policy now this means that the AFD have 464 00:21:01,260 --> 00:21:05,730 lost quite a lot of support precisely 465 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,650 because of the German collective memory 466 00:21:05,730 --> 00:21:09,240 that they remember what happens when you 467 00:21:07,650 --> 00:21:11,150 blame all of your problems on one group 468 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:13,100 well I hope so 469 00:21:11,150 --> 00:21:16,340 on the other hand if that's not what 470 00:21:13,100 --> 00:21:19,790 happens if they do well that's bound to 471 00:21:16,340 --> 00:21:22,130 impact on the German States attitude to 472 00:21:19,790 --> 00:21:24,380 what by anybody's standards has been a 473 00:21:22,130 --> 00:21:27,320 massive influx of migrants and refugees 474 00:21:24,380 --> 00:21:29,510 and we've already seen that Merkel's 475 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:31,820 stance on refugees has changed very 476 00:21:29,510 --> 00:21:33,710 significantly so just like mark rotor in 477 00:21:31,820 --> 00:21:35,630 the Netherlands just like to resume in 478 00:21:33,710 --> 00:21:36,860 the United Kingdom we're going to see 479 00:21:35,630 --> 00:21:38,450 the same thing in Germany of 480 00:21:36,860 --> 00:21:41,210 establishment parties which are 481 00:21:38,450 --> 00:21:42,590 maintaining their power by adopting some 482 00:21:41,210 --> 00:21:44,450 of the nationalist rhetoric and 483 00:21:42,590 --> 00:21:47,300 discourse so at the height of the 484 00:21:44,450 --> 00:21:50,150 refugee crisis Merkel said come to 485 00:21:47,300 --> 00:21:51,980 Germany with open arms then less than a 486 00:21:50,150 --> 00:21:53,330 year later she's publicly debating 487 00:21:51,980 --> 00:21:55,490 whether the burqa should be banned in 488 00:21:53,330 --> 00:21:58,160 some places to appeal to people who 489 00:21:55,490 --> 00:22:00,320 otherwise would vote for the AFD but 490 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:02,240 regardless of how many seats the AFD win 491 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:04,340 they might win a few but not many it's 492 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:06,620 not going to impact the coalition's 493 00:22:04,340 --> 00:22:09,140 policies because everyone has ruled out 494 00:22:06,620 --> 00:22:11,660 a deal with the AFD so the coming 495 00:22:09,140 --> 00:22:13,220 coalition between the CDU and either the 496 00:22:11,660 --> 00:22:15,260 SPD or the FDP 497 00:22:13,220 --> 00:22:17,270 will be significant depending on which 498 00:22:15,260 --> 00:22:19,670 one it is if the SDP 499 00:22:17,270 --> 00:22:23,090 come in we're going to see demands for 500 00:22:19,670 --> 00:22:25,730 more European integration greater reform 501 00:22:23,090 --> 00:22:28,490 of Europe and an extension of the euro 502 00:22:25,730 --> 00:22:29,180 zone to include all EU members I think 503 00:22:28,490 --> 00:22:30,680 that's a given 504 00:22:29,180 --> 00:22:33,080 there's only time for one more question 505 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:37,940 but I do want to hear your answer to it 506 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:40,460 there was all this babble that Russia 507 00:22:37,940 --> 00:22:42,680 was interfering in the German elections 508 00:22:40,460 --> 00:22:46,190 that's now largely debunked I think but 509 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:48,320 you can tell me if it isn't well the new 510 00:22:46,190 --> 00:22:50,930 German government take a different 511 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:53,930 approach to for example sanctions 512 00:22:50,930 --> 00:22:57,380 against Russia then Merkel has been 513 00:22:53,930 --> 00:22:59,750 forced to take by the US until now again 514 00:22:57,380 --> 00:23:01,280 it depends if it's the SDP then we'll 515 00:22:59,750 --> 00:23:04,160 see Germany's policy towards Russia 516 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:06,350 remaining much the same if it's the FDP 517 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:09,500 their leader has pushed for Germany to 518 00:23:06,350 --> 00:23:11,540 accept Crimea's admission into the 519 00:23:09,500 --> 00:23:14,540 Russian Federation and we'll see a weak 520 00:23:11,540 --> 00:23:17,330 sorry add a taunt of German Russian 521 00:23:14,540 --> 00:23:18,950 relations this issue of hacking it's 522 00:23:17,330 --> 00:23:20,540 something that seems to crop up in every 523 00:23:18,950 --> 00:23:24,380 election and the Germans have a 524 00:23:20,540 --> 00:23:26,660 remarkably insecure system for callate 525 00:23:24,380 --> 00:23:29,570 votes at the local level to the federal 526 00:23:26,660 --> 00:23:31,820 level so expect to see more accusations 527 00:23:29,570 --> 00:23:35,240 of Russian interference in an antiquated 528 00:23:31,820 --> 00:23:37,940 system dr. foster your students are are 529 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:39,920 lucky to have you you distill all of 530 00:23:37,940 --> 00:23:41,840 these issues down so perfectly 531 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:48,050 Thank You chefs for joining us thanks 532 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:49,730 for joining us on the Sputnik and now 533 00:23:48,050 --> 00:23:51,710 it's your turn to tell us what you think 534 00:23:49,730 --> 00:23:52,970 through the portals of social media 535 00:23:51,710 --> 00:23:55,610 what's rattling Gayatri 536 00:23:52,970 --> 00:23:58,280 so we asked whether America will sleep 537 00:23:55,610 --> 00:24:00,470 walk into a fourth term basically in the 538 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:03,320 upcoming elections but we know the 539 00:24:00,470 --> 00:24:06,740 answer to that now it's an obvious yes 540 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:09,430 Denzil Defoe replies to that probably 541 00:24:06,740 --> 00:24:12,680 Germany is kaput and they deserved a 542 00:24:09,430 --> 00:24:15,440 hole they've got it is the German voters 543 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:18,140 who are sleepwalking and Brian says 544 00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:20,930 unfortunately it's likely Merkel will be 545 00:24:18,140 --> 00:24:23,390 re-elected with the sickening macro 546 00:24:20,930 --> 00:24:26,630 numerical neoliberal alliance I look 547 00:24:23,390 --> 00:24:32,420 forward to brexit more it is amazing 548 00:24:26,630 --> 00:24:35,240 that she wants to continue and call 549 00:24:32,420 --> 00:24:37,040 attack that is the first surprise but 550 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:40,040 the second surprise for me is that the 551 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:41,570 SPD are in coalition with them what kind 552 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:44,120 of choice therefore to the German people 553 00:24:41,570 --> 00:24:47,960 have either the far left or the far 554 00:24:44,120 --> 00:24:50,090 right or a center party which basically 555 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:52,610 contains everybody sorry go on 556 00:24:50,090 --> 00:24:55,610 no no that's that's that's about right 557 00:24:52,610 --> 00:24:57,080 about the Rohingyas I would rather not 558 00:24:55,610 --> 00:24:59,180 go into that because I've got some 559 00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:01,150 surprising bio responses about that 560 00:24:59,180 --> 00:25:03,530 there are actually people who are 561 00:25:01,150 --> 00:25:05,870 agreeing with this genocide so let's not 562 00:25:03,530 --> 00:25:09,290 go into it well there's such anti-muslim 563 00:25:05,870 --> 00:25:12,470 hatred out there that some idiots and 564 00:25:09,290 --> 00:25:14,600 some educated idiots their default 565 00:25:12,470 --> 00:25:16,850 position is to blame the Muslims even 566 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:18,920 when we can see on our television 567 00:25:16,850 --> 00:25:21,050 screens that they're being massacred and 568 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:23,030 that they're defenseless they don't even 569 00:25:21,050 --> 00:25:25,280 have bicycles nothing to get away on 570 00:25:23,030 --> 00:25:27,080 nothing well that's all the time we've 571 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:29,210 got a lot of tweets today which alas 572 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,860 means that's the end of the show but you 573 00:25:29,210 --> 00:25:33,020 can stay in touch with us on social 574 00:25:30,860 --> 00:25:35,810 media on Facebook Sputnik on Russia 575 00:25:33,020 --> 00:25:38,150 today or on Twitter and Instagram our 576 00:25:35,810 --> 00:25:40,220 the underscores put me it's goodbye from 577 00:25:38,150 --> 00:25:43,300 me Gayathri and for me George Galloway 578 00:25:40,220 --> 00:25:43,300 it's been marvelous 579 00:25:47,850 --> 00:25:52,760 [Music] 580 00:25:50,700 --> 00:25:52,760 you